Good Morning! Stocks were slightly lower this morning with commodities higher and the dollar stronger. Yesterday, we received a hawkish revision to the dot plot: YE22 terminal rate increased from 3.375% to 4.375% and the 2023 dot went from 3.75% to 4.625%. Given this hawkish terminal rate, the market now sees 50bp hike in Dec FOMC from the previous 25bp and expects the terminal rate to be 4.5% early next year. The chances of a soft-landing have diminished.
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Morning Note | Sept 22, 2022
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Good Morning! Stocks were slightly lower this morning with commodities higher and the dollar stronger. Yesterday, we received a hawkish revision to the dot plot: YE22 terminal rate increased from 3.375% to 4.375% and the 2023 dot went from 3.75% to 4.625%. Given this hawkish terminal rate, the market now sees 50bp hike in Dec FOMC from the previous 25bp and expects the terminal rate to be 4.5% early next year. The chances of a soft-landing have diminished.