Yield Hunting Newsletter April 2025 | Look Beyond The Noise
"Tune out the media circus. Tune into your long-term plan."
— Morgan Housel
"The most important thing is to keep the most important thing the most important thin
— Stephen Covey
Executive Summary:
Tune out the media circus (quote above) and focus on 1 to 2 years out.
Fear and volatility are elevated - though not extreme - so opportunities are coming.
The negative liquidity gap from tax payments coming out of investor accounts will last a couple more weeks.
The tariff noise will eventually subside. Trump has 18 months to do what he wants and he doesn't want the entire term to be about tariffs. He'll want to move on. I give it a few more months. When uncertainty becomes certainty, even if tariffs remain in place, the market will rebound.
Rates are likely to be lower by year end. Focus on Bonds and Buffers.
My taxable bond sleeve is now up 2.9% on the year (combination of bond CEFs [+5.2%] and individual bonds [+2.2%]). My muni bond sleeve (about 90% muni CEFs), was up +1.4%.
